固定收益展望：等待减息的同时获取进账

¹资料来源：彭博，世界利率预测，2024年1月1日及2024年6月1日。恕不保证过往趋势将会延续，或者预测将会实现。

²资料来源：彭博、欧盟统计局美国消费物价调和指数所有商品，于2024年3月31日（最新可得数据）。

³资料来源：纽约联邦储备银行消费者预期调查（2024年4月），未来一年通胀预期，欧洲央行消费者预期调查（2024年4月），未来12个月通胀预期中位数。

⁴资料来源:《高工资会引发通胀吗?》（Do higher wages cause inflation?），Magnus Jonnson及Stefan Palmqvist，瑞典国家银行工作文件系列第159号，2004年4月，《劳工成本对通胀的影响有多大？ 》（How much do labour costs drive inflation?）Adam Shapiro，旧金山联邦储备银行，2023年5月30日。

⁵资料来源：《精英足球守门员的行动偏见：十二码案列》（Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers: The case of penalty kicks），Bar-Li、Michael及Azar、Ofer H.及Ritov、Ilana及Keidar -Levin、Yaelr及Schein、Gailt，内盖夫本古里安大学及以色列耶路撒冷希伯来大学（Ben-Gurion University of the Negev and Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel）。

⁶资料来源：标普全球评级，法国评级从AA级降至AA-级，2024年5月31日。

3-Month US Treasury is U.S Treasury bill that will mature 3 months from the date of purchase.

10-Year Treasury is a U.S. Treasury bond that will mature 10 years from the date of purchase.

The ICE BofA US Corporate Index tracks US dollar denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.

The ICE BofA US High Yield Index tracks US dollar denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.

The ICE BofA US Mortgage Backed Securities Index tracks US dollar denominated fixed rate mortgage pass-through securities publicly issued by US agencies Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae in the US domestic market.

The ICE BofA US ABS and CMBS Index tracks US dollar denominated investment grade fixed and floating rate asset backed securities and fixed rate commercial mortgage backed securities publicly issues in the US domestic market.

3-Month German Bund is a German government bond that will mature 3 months from the date of purchase.

10-Year German Bund  is a German government bond that will mature 10 years from the date of purchase.

The ICE BofA Euro Corporate Index tracks EUR denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the eurobond or Euro member domestic markets.

The ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index tracks EUR denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the euro domestic or Eurobond markets.

The Credit Suisse Western European Leveraged Loan Index is designed to mirror the investable universe of the Western European leverage loan market. Loans denominated in US%$ or Western European currencies are eligible for inclusion in the index.

Asset-Backed Securities (ABS): A financial security that is backed (or collateralised) with existing assets (such as loans, credit card debts or leases), usually ones that generate some form of income (cash flow) over time.

Cash flow: The net amount of cash and cash equivalents transferred in and out of a company. Or a general term for the movement of money from one account to another.

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) are fixed income investments backed by mortgages on commercial properties rather than residential real estate.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is a measure of prices that people living in the US pay for goods and services, excluding food and energy. It is a measure of inflation.

Credit rating: A score given by a credit rating agency such as S&P Global Ratings, Moody’s and Fitch on the creditworthiness of a borrower. For example, S&P ranks investment grade bonds from the highest AAA down to BBB and high yields bonds from BB through B down to CCC in terms of declining quality and greater risk, i.e. CCC rated borrowers carry a greater risk of default.

Credit spread is the difference in yield between securities with similar maturity but different credit quality. Widening spreads generally indicate deteriorating creditworthiness of corporate borrowers, and narrowing indicate improving.

Default: The failure of a debtor (such as a bond issuer) to pay interest or to return an original amount loaned when due.

Fiscal policy: Describes government policy relating to setting tax rates and spending levels. Fiscal consolidation or discipline is when a government seeks to reduce its borrowing by spending less or raising taxes, fiscal easing or largesse is the opposite.

High yield bond: Also known as a sub-investment grade bond, or ‘junk’ bond. These bonds usually carry a higher risk of the issuer defaulting on their payments, so they are typically issued with a higher interest rate (coupon) to compensate for the additional risk.

Inflation: The rate at which prices of goods and services are rising in the economy. Core inflation typically excludes volatile items such as food and energy prices. A common measure for inflation is the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Interest cover ratio: This ratio reflects how well a company can pay the interest due on outstanding debt. It is typically calculated by dividing a company’s earnings before interest and taxes by its interest expense during a given period.

Investment-grade bond: A bond typically issued by governments or companies perceived to have a relatively low risk of defaulting on their payments, reflected in the higher rating given to them by credit ratings agencies.

Leverage: This is a measure of the level of debt in a company. Net leverage is debt (minus cash and cash equivalents) as a ratio of earnings (typically before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation). A leveraged company is typically one with high borrowings.

Maturity: The maturity date of a bond is the date when the principal investment (and any final coupon) is paid to investors. Shorter-dated bonds generally mature within 5 years, medium-term bonds within 5 to 10 years, and longer-dated bonds after 10+ years.

Monetary policy refers to the policies of a central bank, aimed at influencing the level of inflation and growth in an economy. It includes controlling interest rates and the supply of money. Monetary loosening refers to central bank activity aimed at reinvigorating the economy by cutting interest rates.

Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): A security which is secured (or backed) by a collection of mortgages. Investors receive periodic payments derived from the underlying mortgages, similar to the coupon on bonds.

Recession: A significant decline in economic activity lasting longer than a few months. A soft landing is a slowdown in economic growth that avoids a recession.

Refinancing: The process of revising and replacing the terms of an existing borrowing agreement, including replacing debt with new borrowing before or at the time of the debt maturity.

U.S. Treasury securities are direct debt obligations issued by the U.S. Government. The investor is a creditor of the government. Treasury Bills and U.S. Government Bonds are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, are generally considered to be free of credit risk and typically carry lower yields than other securities.

Yield: The level of income on a security over a set period, typically expressed as a percentage rate. For equities, a common measure is the dividend yield, which divides recent dividend payments for each share by the share price. For a bond, at its most simple, this is calculated as the coupon payment divided by the current bond price.

Yield to worst (YTW) is the lowest yield a bond can achieve provided the issuer does not default and accounts for any applicable call feature (i.e., the issuer can call the bond back at a date specified in advance). At a portfolio level, this statistic represents the weighted average YTW for all the underlying issues.

Volatility measures risk using the dispersion of returns for a given investment. The rate and extent at which the price of a portfolio, security or index moves up and down.