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Money trends / stocks cycle suggesting US weakness

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Global industrial weakness, as expected, has intensified in early 2019. Based on last week’s flash results for the US, Japan and Euroland, the global PMI manufacturing new orders index is estimated to have fallen below 50 in February, reaching its lowest level since 2012 – see first chart. The final reading will depend importantly on Chinese results released on Friday.

Tell tail signs: February 2019 – Thank you Fed, at least for now

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Janus Henderson’s US-based Multi-Asset Solutions Team present their latest Tail Risk Report, using options market prices to infer expected tail gains and losses for each asset class. Now that the ‘Fed Put’ is back in play, this report takes a look at how options market signals are positioned.

Fund Manager commentary – City of London Investment Trust

UK equities produced a negative return of 3.75% in December as measured by the FTSE All Share Index. The FTSE 100 Index of large companies, with a negative return 3.5%, outperformed the more domestically focussed FTSE 250 Index of medium-sized companies which produced a negative return of 5.1%. Concern about rising US interest rates against

Time to go domestic for US equities in 2019?

Can a strong corporate backdrop help U.S. equities to deliver a positive return in 2019? Portfolio Managers Marc Pinto and Jeremiah Buckley look at the prospects for domestic U.S. equities, following a turbulent 2018, and some of the themes that they believe could create value over time. They also consider some of the key issues facing fixed income markets.

Chinese data flattered by New Year timing effect

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​​Chinese trade and money / credit releases for January reported recoveries in year-on-year comparisons and have been interpreted positively by market participants seeking evidence of economic turnaround. The suspicion here is that the improvements reflect a New Year timing effect and will reverse in February.​