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Global Sector Views: June 2019

Carmel Wellso and the US-based Global Research team share their views on equity markets in the June 2019 edition of Global Sector Views.

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

Simon Ward | Janus Henderson Investors

​In late 2016, the forecasting approach employed here – relying on monetary and cycle analysis – signalled that the global economy would grow strongly in 2017. A year ago, it suggested that a significant slowdown would unfold during 2018. The current message is that this slowdown is likely to extend and deepen, at least through mid-2019. A recovery in momentum is possible during the second half of the year but such a scenario requires confirmation from stronger monetary trends in early 2019.

Asia – beyond the trade war

​Andrew Gillan, Head of Asia Pacific ex Japan Equities and Co-Manager of the Asian Growth Strategy, discusses why he believes investors should remain invested in Asia despite the short-term challenges. He also reflects on the five years he has been managing the strategy.

Investors are bizarrely negative on Europe

Ollie Beckett, fund manager of TR European Growth Trust, explains the rationale behind some of the new names in the portfolio and his process for identifying companies with good growth prospects. Ollie also discusses the “bizarrely negative” attitude towards Europe, where many companies have benefited from the Brexit saga.

US-China trade negotiations — another ceasefire

Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, shares his views on the meeting between the US and China at the G20 Summit in Osaka and explains why the ceasefire does not necessarily mean an end to the trade war.