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Commercial property: building for future trends

Ainslie McLennan

Ainslie McLennan

Portfolio Manager, Janus Henderson UK Property PAIF


13 Feb 2018

​Ainslie McLennan, Co-Manager of the Henderson UK Property PAIF, examines some of the future trends that are likely to shape commercial property markets in the years to come. She identifies seven trends that she believes will help shape markets and explains how these trends are factored into portfolio construction and asset management initiatives.

Shifts in commercial property markets are often a visual embodiment of society’s underlying drivers and values. While factors such as location, specification and occupier demand will continue to shape property valuations, developing trends, driven by technological and social change, are likely to have a growing importance on investment returns. Here we introduce seven key trends:

1. Mixed-use facilities

Increasingly, office occupiers are attracted by the presence of retail or some form of leisure experience, while shopping centres should benefit from close proximity to office populations and leisure facilities, such as cinemas, bars and restaurants.

Millennials expect to be able to shop, work and socialise when they like, and not necessarily make unique journeys for each. In order to attract young talent, office occupiers’ location strategies are increasingly focused on where that talent wants to live, and so we see office and residential quarters encroaching on each other, with the common ground being leisure or retail. Buildings or estates that successfully combine a number of different use types are likely to enjoy higher footfall, longer dwell times, and ultimately become more productive. An example of a mixed-use asset within the Henderson UK Property PAIF can be found in Bermondsey, South London, and includes office, retail, residential, restaurant and cinema elements.

Bermondsey, South London

Commercial property: building for future trends | Janus Henderson Investors

2. Data storage: it’s all about the location

[caption id=”attachment_71339″ align=”alignright” width=”300″]Commercial property: building for future trends | Janus Henderson Investors Source: iStock[/caption]

The world is becoming more information centric. Society’s reliance on creating and consuming data continues to grow, as does the need for data to be available when and where it is needed. To sustain business activity, enhance IT service delivery, and enable new applications, data requirements will continue to grow and require more processing, network, bandwidth and data storage capacity.

Nowadays, organisations of all sizes are faced with having to do more with less, including maximising IT resources against footprint constraints. Beyond simply finding space to store data, organisations need to keep digital information safe, private and secure, in order to protect intellectual property rights. In the second quarter of 2015 the Henderson UK Property PAIF acquired a data centre in Romford, Essex, which is an excellent location with strong demand due to its proximity to Central London. The PAIF also owns a data centre development in London Docklands, which will offer 140,000 square feet of space and is due to be finalised later this year.

3. Retail and logistical distribution integration – further evolution

Technology’s impact on the retail sector, and the secondary effects on the distribution warehouse market, will lead to a further blurring of the two sectors. Shopping apps and expectations of same-day delivery have required redesigns of retailers’ distribution networks and the use of stores for e-commerce fulfilment.

E-commerce is presumed to have a negative impact on the retail sector, but physical stores in the right locations are still the primary point of retail sales as two-thirds of online sales involve a pre- or post-transaction store visit.

Ikea distribution warehouse in Corby, Northamptonshire, run by CEVA Logistics

[caption id=”attachment_71317″ align=”alignnone” width=”300″]Commercial property: building for future trends | Janus Henderson Investors Source: TH Real Estate[/caption]

4. Retail outlets: growing popularity

It’s cool to love a bargain these days. Shoppers’ perceptions and behaviour have changed and outlets have become trendy, with the retail sector evolving from factory outlets selling surplus stock to designer outlets with high-end concepts. The sector is in a strong state, with rising rents, low vacancy rates and buoyant occupier demand for well-located assets.

Retail outlets typically have lower operating costs, making them more profitable than traditional retail locations, and their value offer has proven resilient to economic fluctuations and the onslaught of the internet. In the bad times, people value discounts and in the good times, luxury thrives.

Dalton Park, Murton, County Durham

 

[caption id=”attachment_71350″ align=”alignnone” width=”680″]Commercial property: building for future trends | Janus Henderson Investors Source: TH Real Estate[/caption]

Dalton Park, a retail factory outlet mall in Murton, County Durham, is owned by the PAIF. It comprises approximately 160,000 square feet of retail property space with around 60 tenants including M&S, Next and Gap. During the third quarter of 2016 a leisure development scheme was also completed on behalf of the PAIF at the site. It includes a seven screen cinema and complementary food and beverage offerings, which should also increase footfall and turnover for existing tenants. The scheme is fully let to Cineworld, Prezzo, Pizza Express, Frankie & Benny’s, KFC and McDonald’s.

5. Impact of driverless cars

[caption id=”attachment_71284″ align=”alignleft” width=”300″]Commercial property: building for future trends | Janus Henderson Investors Source: iStock[/caption]

The transition from manual to autonomous driving may have significant knock-on effects for cities, towns and general infrastructure. Landlords will need to keep an eye on any potential requirements for driverless car park requirements, such as drop-off zones.

6. Sustainability matters

As investor preference for carbon efficiency continues to emerge, products that have an explicit sustainability strategy will become more widespread. These will encompass investments in stock that already outperforms the market, and also investment into assets with the intention of improving their sustainability and value. Our approach to sustainability is to ensure that it is embedded into asset management and this has led to a number of successful initiatives, such as the installation of highly energy efficient LED lighting and the enhancement of recycling zones. Dalton Park and Ealing Gateway (West London) have been a recent focus.

Ealing Gateway, West London

[caption id=”attachment_71295″ align=”alignnone” width=”300″]Commercial property: building for future trends | Janus Henderson Investors Source: TH Real Estate[/caption]

We are also seeing increased demand for electric car-friendly parking, with additional charging points installed at the PAIF’s office holdings in Rickmansworth and Cambridge.

Capital Park, Cambridge

[caption id=”attachment_71306″ align=”alignnone” width=”680″]Commercial property: building for future trends | Janus Henderson Investors Source: TH Real Estate[/caption]

 

7. Health, well-being and productivity considerations

This will continue to be a significant trend to watch as more landlords and tenants explore how they can benchmark and improve health and well-being factors such as natural light, air quality and active design. Various methodologies are likely to emerge and more information will develop, demonstrating the link between health and well-being in buildings and productivity.

Tenants are increasingly taking account of health and well-being factors when seeking new space and as such this is a key consideration for property investors such as us. We always strive to develop close relationships with our tenants to better understand their requirements.

Future proofing property investments

Our nine-strong investment team at TH Real Estate*, which manages the Henderson UK Property PAIF through a sub-investment management agreement, has to be forward looking by nature. Understanding the trends with the potential to fundamentally change our lives and our landscapes is key and sustainability issues are taken extremely seriously from a social and economic point of view.

Ainslie McLennan

Ainslie McLennan

Portfolio Manager, Janus Henderson UK Property PAIF


13 Feb 2018

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