“We are entering into an unusually synchronised global recession… lead indicators suggest this will be a long downturn and a deep recession.” (September 2022 webcast)

In the September webcast we discussed the lead indicators we follow and see no bottom until Q2 2023 at the earliest. Further, we have a litany of potential negative catalysts into the global recessionary backdrop such as: energy crisis, central bank panic (coordinated tightening into a recession) and a structural growth collapse in China amidst property defaults and a zero covid policy. Here we updated on the outlook following a tumultuous few months for financial markets and bond markets in particular.