Markets have fastened on to some dramatic headlines in recent months, having to absorb both geopolitical risk from the fallout of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and policy risk as central banks contend with high inflation. It is little wonder that the first quarter of 2022 was the most difficult start for fixed income markets since the 1990s. Yet most headlines are predicated on what happened rather than what will happen. With central bankers looking at lagging indicators is there a risk of policy error and how might markets respond?

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