​Today’s Conference Board consumer survey provides more evidence that economic weakness is spreading to the labour market. An indicator combining consumer assessments of current job-finding difficulty and prospects in six months’ time rose to a 14-month high in June – see chart. This indicator usually leads the unemployment rate at turning points, suggesting a move up from the current 3.6%. The median projection of FOMC participants for the fourth quarter of 2019 was revised down from 3.7% to 3.6% at last week’s meeting – a likely overshoot supports expectations of rate cuts over the remainder of 2019.