After a difficult 2023, we see several reasons to be positive about the outlook for the trust, and UK smaller companies more broadly, in 2024.
UK businesses of all sizes struggled with rapidly rising inflation during the first half of last year, with inflation still above the Bank of England’s target.
This level of inflation hurts companies in various ways, including by reducing their customers’ ability to spend and by increasing the costs of running their businesses due to an increase in wages, energy bills and other essential materials.
Inflation is now falling but some of the underlying causes of it remain in place; in particular the war in Ukraine and ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China.
This means that next year’s economic outlook, while likely to be an improvement on 2023, remains unpredictable.
But the UK corporate sector shows signs of resilience in the face of this outlook, which give us a number of reasons for optimism. We particularly see opportunities in a number of industrial and commercial sectors that we are hopeful can drive an improvement on last year’s performance.
Firstly, we believe that the market conditions for UK smaller companies are fundamentally stronger now than they have been in previous periods of economic and market downturn and volatility, such as the financial crisis of 2008.
The companies in our investment universe have significantly less debt now than they did then, and indeed a high proportion have net cash. The amount they are able to pay their shareholders in dividends, or buy stock back from them, is increasing, which is a good signal for both investors and the companies themselves.
Valuations among UK companies, including smaller ones, remain low relative to their historic average, and also to their global peers. We believe this will support a likely increase in mergers and acquisitions next year, which will help to drive stock performance in the sector.
We will approach 2024 with the same disciplined investment approach as we have always taken, based on our proprietary ‘4Ms’ methodology for choosing companies to invest in.
- Model: Focuses on a company’s competitive advantage in their markets
- Management: Our assessment of a company’s leadership team and strategy
- Money: The current state and direction of a company’s financial position and strength
- Momentum: The market factors likely to drive a company’s near and longer-term earnings performance
Based on this approach we believe we are well positioned going into 2024, when we think certain factors could work to our advantage.
We have retained the bias towards growth companies in the portfolio. As interest rates start to decline this will support a return to favour of these sort of companies and allow earnings valuation multiples to expand after a period of contraction.
We have also added a number of new companies to the fund this year, which we think could strengthen our portfolio next year, based on the 4M criteria.
Although these new positions cut across a variety of different business sectors – including pharmaceuticals, data services, financial services, sophisticated technology-led manufacturing and education – the majority of them score particularly strongly on ‘Model’ and ‘Management’, either through offering products and services that differentiate them in their sectors, or by focussing on areas of their markets that we think are most likely to ensure their competitiveness and profitability.
Additionally, we have added some companies with strong cash balance sheets (‘Money’), making them better able to withstand economic difficulties or to invest in their profitability, both of which we think strengthens the position of the fund overall.
Finally, we have also sold positions in several companies this year that we anticipated could have acted as a drag on the trust’s performance in 2024.
Disclaimers:
References made to individual securities do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, investment strategy or market sector, and should not be assumed to be profitable. Janus Henderson Investors, its affiliated advisor, or its employees, may have a position in the securities mentioned.
Not for onward distribution. Before investing in an investment trust referred to in this document, you should satisfy yourself as to its suitability and the risks involved, you may wish to consult a financial adviser. This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the AIFMD Disclosure document and Annual Report of the AIF before making any final investment decisions. Past performance does not predict future returns. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those circumstances or the law change. Nothing in this document is intended to or should be construed as advice. This document is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. It does not form part of any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment. We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.
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