Surging inflation in recent years prompted central banks, including the Bank of England, to raise interest rates. However, as price increases continue to moderate, pressure will slowly build for rates to come down to prevent the economy from slipping into recession.
Indeed, at its latest meeting the Bank of England held rates at 5.25% for the second month running. We believe this is a sign that the interest rate hiking cycle is probably over and rates are likely to be cut over the next 12 months or so. Investors should therefore start to consider companies that offer the potential for outperformance in a falling interest rate environment despite an uncertain economic outlook, given we believe valuations already price in those uncertainties.
There are some exciting high-dividend opportunities in the UK market that could benefit if interest rates are cut, that we hold within Henderson High Income Investment Trust:
Falling interest rates should be a strong driver for the housebuilding sector. More affordable mortgage rates, coupled with falling inflation driving real wage growth and relieving cost pressures, would typically fuel demand for housing. The housebuilding sector is also well-capitalised and is very unlikely to experience the kind of fire-sale observed during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, which had a detrimental impact on house prices.
In this sector, we own Taylor Wimpey as we believe much of the economic bad news is already reflected in its share price. It has recently been trading at a 20% discount to its net asset value (NAV) – the value of the land and property held on its balance sheet – which we think represents good value. The company also has £860m of cash on the balance sheet as of year-end 2022, which means its 8.7% dividend yield should be sustainable even in more difficult times. In fact, the dividend has been stress tested by the company who believe it can still be funded up to a 20% fall in house prices and a 30% decline in sales volumes.
In the building materials sector, a fall in interest rates should help stimulate construction for both residential and commercial properties. Genuit is one of the leading providers of plastic piping systems for the residential, commercial and infrastructure sectors.
The company benefits from several structural tailwinds enforced by government regulation, while new management is restructuring the business to drive cost efficiencies and higher margins over the longer term. Further, Genuit has a an attractive balance sheet and a decent dividend yield of 4.3% with the potential to grow.
The commercial real estate sector also benefits from any cuts to interest rates, as it should lower the cost of capital and make development projects more value-accretive, i.e. generate greater profits. In this sector, we like self-storage, a structurally growing market in the UK with penetration rates significantly lower than in more mature markets such as the US and Australia. Businesses have recognised its value as a storage solution for logistics, adding to more traditional demand from home movers.
Big Yellow is a self-storage company with a powerful brand and high-quality estate focused on London and the South East. It recently raised money that will help fund the development of its existing pipeline of new facilities, which should generate good returns and underpin future earnings and dividend growth. However, its share price valuation currently sits at a 10-year low with a dividend yield close to 5%.
Finally, a drop in interest rates aligned with a corresponding fall in inflation should ease the pressure on consumer spending and benefit retailers. In this sector, fashion retailer Next is a high-quality company with a strong digital platform driving most of its profits.
Next’s platform draws on all its assets – stores, warehouses, delivery networks, systems, marketing and credit facilities – to create a powerful aggregation business. It sells hundreds of third-party clothing and homeware brands alongside its own merchandise in the UK and, increasingly, Europe. Its expert management team, attractive balance sheet and attractive valuation make it worthy of consideration, with the company repeatedly revising its earnings expectations upwards.
Disclaimers
References made to individual securities do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, investment strategy or market sector, and should not be assumed to be profitable. Janus Henderson Investors, its affiliated advisor, or its employees, may have a position in the securities mentioned.
Not for onward distribution. Before investing in an investment trust referred to in this document, you should satisfy yourself as to its suitability and the risks involved, you may wish to consult a financial adviser. This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the AIFMD Disclosure document and Annual Report of the AIF before making any final investment decisions. Past performance does not predict future returns. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those circumstances or the law change. Nothing in this document is intended to or should be construed as advice. This document is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. It does not form part of any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment. We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.
Issued in the UK by Janus Henderson Investors. Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which investment products and services are provided by Janus Henderson Investors International Limited (reg no. 3594615), Janus Henderson Investors UK Limited (reg. no. 906355), Janus Henderson Fund Management UK Limited (reg. no. 2678531), (each registered in England and Wales at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) and Janus Henderson Investors Europe S.A. (reg no. B22848 at 78, Avenue de la Liberté, L-1930 Luxembourg, Luxembourg and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier).
Janus Henderson and Knowledge Shared are trademarks of Janus Henderson Group plc or one of its subsidiaries. © Janus Henderson Group plc
