UK Multi Asset Team – long-term expected returns & market assumptions
Following a year in which nothing felt normal, the outcome for financial markets has, at times, felt particularly uncertain for investors.
1 minute read
Key takeaways:
- What role can forecasts for long-term expected returns play in supporting investment decisions?
- Philosophy, methodology and an overview of some of the expected challenges investors may face over the next decade.
- What does the past tell us about how equities have performed in similar environments characterised by high valuations and periods of low levels of inflation?
Despite this, both equity and bonds delivered strong returns at the asset class level in 2020. But can these positive returns continue? In this document, Janus Henderson’s UK-based Multi Asset Team set out their expectations for longer-term returns across 31 major assets classes across equity, fixed income, currencies and commodities.
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These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. References made to individual securities do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, investment strategy or market sector, and should not be assumed to be profitable. Janus Henderson Investors, its affiliated advisor, or its employees, may have a position in the securities mentioned.
Past performance does not predict future returns. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.
The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.
There is no guarantee that past trends will continue, or forecasts will be realised.
Marketing Communication.
Important information
Please read the following important information regarding funds related to this article.
- Shares/Units can lose value rapidly, and typically involve higher risks than bonds or money market instruments. The value of your investment may fall as a result.
- An issuer of a bond (or money market instrument) may become unable or unwilling to pay interest or repay capital to the Fund. If this happens or the market perceives this may happen, the value of the bond will fall.
- When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise (or are expected to rise). This risk is typically greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
- The Fund invests in other funds (including exchange-traded funds and investment trusts/companies). This may introduce more risky assets, derivative usage and other risks associated with the underlying funds, as well as contributing to a higher level of ongoing charges.
- The Fund may use derivatives to help achieve its investment objective. This can result in leverage (higher levels of debt), which can magnify an investment outcome. Gains or losses to the Fund may therefore be greater than the cost of the derivative. Derivatives also introduce other risks, in particular, that a derivative counterparty may not meet its contractual obligations.
- If the Fund holds assets in currencies other than the base currency of the Fund, or you invest in a share/unit class of a different currency to the Fund (unless hedged, i.e. mitigated by taking an offsetting position in a related security), the value of your investment may be impacted by changes in exchange rates.
- When the Fund, or a share/unit class, seeks to mitigate exchange rate movements of a currency relative to the base currency (hedge), the hedging strategy itself may positively or negatively impact the value of the Fund due to differences in short-term interest rates between the currencies.
- Securities within the Fund could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, especially in extreme market conditions when asset prices may be falling, increasing the risk of investment losses.
- The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which the Fund trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations, or as a result of failure or delay in operational processes or the failure of a third party provider.
Specific risks
1 minute read
Key takeaways:
- What role can forecasts for long-term expected returns play in supporting investment decisions?
- Philosophy, methodology and an overview of some of the expected challenges investors may face over the next decade.
- What does the past tell us about how equities have performed in similar environments characterised by high valuations and periods of low levels of inflation?